Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 19,009
2 New Jersey 17,633
3 Massachusetts 13,669
4 Rhode Island 13,548
5 District of Columbia 11,910
6 Connecticut 11,580
7 Delaware 9,341
8 Illinois 9,044
9 Louisiana 8,323
10 Maryland 8,111
11 Nebraska 6,707
12 Iowa 5,846
13 Pennsylvania 5,752
14 Michigan 5,561
15 South Dakota 5,324
16 Indiana 4,937
17 Mississippi 4,718
18 Virginia 4,715
19 Colorado 4,302
20 Georgia 4,022
21 Minnesota 3,985
22 New Mexico 3,458
23 Alabama 3,269
24 Kansas 3,244
25 North Dakota 3,204
26 New Hampshire 3,152
27 Tennessee 3,127
28 Ohio 2,860
29 Wisconsin 2,845
30 Washington 2,831
31 Utah 2,716
32 Nevada 2,645
33 California 2,578
34 Florida 2,450
35 Arizona 2,371
36 North Carolina 2,363
37 Kentucky 2,084
38 Arkansas 2,079
39 South Carolina 2,063
40 Missouri 2,056
41 Texas 2,036
42 Maine 1,589
43 Oklahoma 1,574
44 Vermont 1,556
45 Idaho 1,528
46 Wyoming 1,485
47 West Virginia 1,086
48 Puerto Rico 1,063
49 Oregon 957
50 Alaska 570
51 Montana 450
52 Hawaii 447

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Virginia 156
2 Nebraska 145
3 District of Columbia 139
4 Maryland 117
5 Minnesota 111
6 Illinois 107
7 Iowa 106
8 Alabama 105
9 Louisiana 100
10 Delaware 98
11 New Jersey 92
12 Rhode Island 90
13 Mississippi 88
14 Connecticut 76
15 Massachusetts 74
16 Wisconsin 68
17 California 60
18 Tennessee 60
19 New York 59
20 South Dakota 55
21 Georgia 54
22 Indiana 54
23 Pennsylvania 51
24 New Mexico 49
25 North Carolina 49
26 Ohio 43
27 Arizona 42
28 Arkansas 39
29 Colorado 36
30 Kansas 36
31 Washington 36
32 Kentucky 35
33 South Carolina 34
34 Texas 34
35 New Hampshire 33
36 Utah 33
37 West Virginia 32
38 Michigan 30
39 Nevada 28
40 Florida 27
41 Missouri 27
42 Wyoming 27
43 Puerto Rico 21
44 Maine 20
45 Oklahoma 16
46 Idaho 15
47 North Dakota 10
48 Oregon 8
49 Vermont 8
50 Alaska 3
51 Hawaii 0
52 Montana 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,508
2 New Jersey 1,276
3 Connecticut 1,066
4 Massachusetts 949
5 District of Columbia 630
6 Rhode Island 618
7 Louisiana 585
8 Michigan 534
9 Pennsylvania 413
10 Illinois 403
11 Maryland 395
12 Delaware 353
13 Indiana 301
14 Colorado 241
15 Mississippi 225
16 Georgia 179
17 Ohio 174
18 Minnesota 167
19 New Hampshire 164
20 Iowa 157
21 New Mexico 156
22 Virginia 150
23 Washington 145
24 Nevada 130
25 Alabama 118
26 Arizona 114
27 Missouri 114
28 Florida 107
29 California 100
30 Kentucky 94
31 Wisconsin 92
32 South Carolina 90
33 Nebraska 86
34 Vermont 86
35 Oklahoma 81
36 North Carolina 78
37 North Dakota 77
38 Kansas 71
39 South Dakota 61
40 Maine 60
41 Texas 55
42 Tennessee 51
43 Idaho 45
44 West Virginia 41
45 Puerto Rico 40
46 Arkansas 39
47 Oregon 35
48 Utah 32
49 Wyoming 24
50 Montana 15
51 Hawaii 12
52 Alaska 10

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Rhode Island 14
2 Connecticut 10
3 Massachusetts 8
4 New Jersey 7
5 Delaware 6
6 District of Columbia 6
7 Illinois 6
8 Maryland 6
9 Mississippi 5
10 New York 5
11 Iowa 4
12 Virginia 4
13 Colorado 3
14 Georgia 3
15 Michigan 3
16 Minnesota 3
17 New Hampshire 3
18 Pennsylvania 3
19 Alabama 2
20 Indiana 2
21 Louisiana 2
22 Nebraska 2
23 North Dakota 2
24 Ohio 2
25 South Carolina 2
26 Arizona 1
27 California 1
28 Florida 1
29 Kentucky 1
30 New Mexico 1
31 North Carolina 1
32 South Dakota 1
33 Tennessee 1
34 Washington 1
35 Wisconsin 1
36 Wyoming 1
37 Alaska 0
38 Arkansas 0
39 Hawaii 0
40 Idaho 0
41 Kansas 0
42 Maine 0
43 Missouri 0
44 Montana 0
45 Nevada 0
46 Oklahoma 0
47 Oregon 0
48 Puerto Rico 0
49 Texas 0
50 Utah 0
51 Vermont 0
52 West Virginia 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 123,361 1 99
Dakota Nebraska 82,343 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 74,862 3 99
Nobles Minnesota 68,797 4 99
Lake Tennessee 58,865 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 7,301 258 91
Richland South Carolina 3,379 681 78
Pierce Washington 2,098 1016 67
Orange California 1,779 1162 63
York South Carolina 1,292 1455 53

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Terrell Georgia 3,048 1 99
Early Georgia 2,944 2 99
Randolph Georgia 2,803 3 99
Hancock Georgia 2,601 4 99
Essex New Jersey 2,033 5 99
Richland South Carolina 159 568 81
Davidson Tennessee 86 830 73
Pierce Washington 84 841 73
Orange California 43 1208 61
York South Carolina 21 1488 52

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons